05 Nov 2024
Good morning, Michael, Scottie. Thank you for the invitation and the opportunity to speak here today. To Their Excellencies, High Commissioner for the United Kingdom, Vicki Treadell, and Her Excellency the Ambassador for the United States to Australia, Caroline Kennedy. Thank you for being here at this very, very important event.
Other distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, and of course, most importantly, the submariners in the room, it is fantastic to share this event with you.
I'd like to begin by acknowledging the Ngunnawal people on whose traditional lands we meet today, and I pay my respects to their elders, past, present and emerging.
I'd also like to acknowledge the more than 20 ships of the Royal Australian Navy and more than 1,600 sailors and officers who are underway in their great service to our nation this week while we are gathered here to discuss this very important issue.
Introduction – A Tradition of Excellence in Spite of Doubt
By way of introduction, I'd like to talk about the tradition of excellence in spite of doubt, and it is an honour to address you on a topic that is frankly fundamental to our shared future as citizens of a three‑ocean island trading nation.
Australia's submarines are the cornerstone of our deterrence strategy. But deterrence against what? Against an appetite to interfere with our maritime economy–I submit, an economy which is reliant upon access to the sea, to shipping lanes and to seabed cables.
Some of us grew up being told that this nation rode to economic success on the sheep's back. I disagree with that. Frankly, as far as I know, sheep don't swim, very far. I submit that this nation sailed to economic prosperity on the ship's deck, and we forget it at our peril. Iron ore doesn't float.
The fuel imports which enable our economy and power the ADF’s ability to fly, sail and drive, come via the maritime industry. We maintain our economic prosperity by maintaining access to the seas and access to the seas in our time is no longer guaranteed.
Indeed freedom of the seas isn't free, and for an island trading nation, this is not a discretionary issue.
But let me start by observing that despite our nation being entirely surrounded by sea with a comparatively modest population, Australia's submarine programs—from the E‑class in 1914 to today's initiatives under AUKUS—have constantly faced criticism for their cost and complexity. It is an abiding trend.
Our nation's first submarines, the E‑class, were criticised as costly and risky undertakings, as Australia's military submarine capability and the Royal Australian Navy itself were both still in their infancy.
What was lost was that we had access to, and we were operating the most advanced long‑range conventional submarine of its day, in the very earliest years of our Navy.
By the 1960s, with the acquisition of the Oberon‑class, we saw a significant capability leap. Yet, the O boats were criticised for their considerable maintenance and upgrade costs, drawing criticism for being an unsustainable strain on resources. Regardless, to this day they are regarded as one of, if not the most, capable conventional submarines of their era.
In the 1990s the debate resurfaced as we pursued the Collins‑class. Concerns over technical complexity and our capacity to build them sparked significant public discourse. Indeed, I remember the headline, Dud Subs, by Ian McPhedran in the weekend paper, being published at the same time as one of our Collins‑class submarines, the first to participate in exercise RIMPAC, was finding, fixing and holding at risk Los Angeles‑class submarines. It was indeed the quietest submarine of its type in that exercise. But you wouldn't have known it from reading the media.
Again, the Collins‑class are regarded as world‑class all diesel boats who continue to conduct a variety of successful operations for our nation. And would it be possible that I could stand here with my peers from the Submarine Force from all three nations and share with you the operational successes of the Royal Australian Navy? If I could, I think you would indeed be very, very proud. We would all go to jail, however.
The recurring factor has been a tendency by some commentators to lament the relative cost of ownership of submarines versus ships. It always struck me as odd though that it wasn't intuitive to grasp that an underwater aerospace vehicle would cost more to own and operate than a floating vessel, or that the utility was not only complementary, but it was force multiplying.
However, in each instance, in spite of the doubt, Australian submarine programs ultimately succeeded through the grit and determination of astute decision makers and the dedication and professionalism of Navy people and our industry and academic partners.
This story of excellence reflects an enduring pattern of overcoming doubt to achieve extraordinary national capability outcomes. It is truly a story of Australian excellence, persevering and achieving great things in spite of pessimism, cynicism and competing agendas. And the missions consistently achieved by professionals focused on one thing, we derive our national economic security, and therefore our national security, from access to the maritime domain.
Submarines and Complexity—Collins-class
Doubt, it seems, is not limited to the acquisition of new boats, but also criticising the preparedness of existing ones.
Let me start by dispelling some myths about our Collins‑class boats. They are meeting the operational requirements of the Australian Government. As responsible owners of such a complex capability we do plan for contingencies, we can opt for early or shortened maintenance cycles, we surge to meet priority taskings and we rest in port when the hard work is done.
But you don't see a headline in the media when we have four submarines at sea at the same time, as we did just a few months ago. Or when two submarines are concurrently deployed thousands of miles from home port, as they were just a couple of months ago.
As many of you know, submarines and building and maintaining them are some of the most complex engineering undertakings in the world, requiring an intricate blend of cutting‑edge technology, precision manufacturing, astute decision making and an array of specialised skills
The demands on these vessels that must operate silently, survive immense under water pressure and perform with unparalleled stealth and endurance necessitate systems integration on an extraordinary scale. Each submarine is a compact self‑sustained vessel requiring power generation, life support, propulsion and advanced weaponry, all within a confined space.
The shipbuilding and maintenance of them involves thousands of components from navigation to electronics and propulsion to hull and sensor maintenance. The nature of this complexity means that unanticipated challenges and technical delays and material shortages are almost inevitable. But we plan against this knowledge. So perceived setbacks are expected and are overcome with foresight, astute decision making and prioritisation.
Perceived setbacks should then be understood as a representation of the ambitious sophisticated nature of building and sustaining modern complex submersible vessels and the unforgiving environment they operate in and the operational demand of them.
Future Outlook—SSNs
As I stand here as the first Chief of a nuclear powered Royal Australian Navy, I've observed this pattern of criticism and doubt continuing with AUKUS Pillar I program, and also with the readiness of our existing Collins‑class boats.
Like the programs before them, the Virginia‑class and the AUKUS‑class SSNs have also been criticised for the large acquisition costs and complexity of these advanced boats, despite the fact that the cost of a high‑end surface combatant these days is almost the same as the cost of an SSN.
To the critics I submit that where Australia has succeeded before, I am confident we will again. I, for one, do not doubt the ability of Australian ingenuity or the ship yards in Australia.
Have Australian submarine programs faced challenges? Absolutely. But each program was ultimately successful in introducing capable boats into service and each class achieved operational successes on behalf of the nation and have cultivated a world‑class reputation.
Consider AE2. The first allied submarine to breach the heavily defended Dardanelles Strait in World War I, after several submarines had tried and failed and many submariners had been killed.
To put it into perspective, that was the most heavily defended patch of water on the planet, and no foreign warship had penetrated the Dardanelles in 300 years. To quote the Turkish Chief of Navy whom I met just a few weeks ago:
“If it wasn't for AE2 the Dardanelles would not have been penetrated, the allies would likely have withdrawn earlier, Ataturk would not have had his moment, and Turkey might be a communist State.”
That surprised me hearing that from the Chief of the Turkish Navy. I look forward to seeing him in Gallipoli in April next year and exploring that further.
That's a foreign nation that's now building a monument to AE2, a replica of the submarine as a tourist attraction. One of our very first submarines made an impact on the world stage, and we forget it at our peril.
Later during the Cold War, the Oberon‑class exceeded in intelligence gathering and surveillance, allegedly providing critical insights on Soviet activities in the Asia Pacific due to their advanced stealth capabilities and from conducting both shadowing and Special Forces operations.
The Collins‑class has also proven itself across the Indo‑Pacific, conducting many, many successful operations, proving to be world‑class diesel boats. But just don't take my word for it. Our success at sea has underpinned the confidence of our colleagues in the Royal Navy and the United States Navy to support our SSN partnership.
Be in no doubt, if their professional Submarine Forces didn't believe our Submarine Force was up to this challenge, we wouldn't be here talking about AUKUS.
In this context I'll spend the next few minutes sharing my perspective on why we are pursuing SSNs, why now is the time to do it and what SSNs can do for our nation.
Why SSNs?
Firstly, the National Defence Strategy tasked our Navy with acquiring conventionally armed nuclear‑powered submarines as a key capability priority to increase under‑sea warfare capability. It states the SSNs will “enhance our ability to deter aggression and contribute to stability in the Indo‑Pacific.”
Back to our economy for a moment. Consider the following. Over 99 per cent of Australia's international trade by volume moves through maritime routes. Our economy is also highly export driven, we are the world's largest exporter of iron ore and a leading liquid natural gas exporter. These two examples alone contribute much to the Australian GDP.
Moreover, there are 16 submarine cables stretching over one and a half million kilometres that transmit data crucial to global financial transactions, an estimated value of $10 trillion per day. Our almost $1 trillion import/export economy relies upon secure sea lanes and the uninterrupted flow of goods and data across oceans.
And Australia is the custodian of the third largest Exclusive Economic Zone in the world. That's approximately 0.3 square kilometres of Exclusive Economic Zone for each Australian citizen. Our Exclusive Economic Zone more than doubles the size of our island continent.
Australia's economic wellbeing depends on free and open access to the sea, and unfortunately we can no longer assume that it will remain so in the future. The rights of coastal states to exploit their sovereign rights in their Exclusive Economic Zone is under active constant daily challenge. It follows then that there is no economic security for our nation without strong maritime security. It is one of very few existential issues our nation faces.
These points present what we call a small sized large-terrain quandary for our modest but capable Defence Force, particularly our Navy. Our Navy's first mission is to protect our nation's prosperity, which often lies well beyond our shores. We cannot be everywhere all at once, but we must have the sovereign capability to deter actions against us and our interests, including actions against the shipping industry, which sustains our wellbeing.
The former Chief of the South African Navy said in 2000:
“Submarines make small Navies credible, and it's credible force that underpins credible deterrence.”
As a so‑called apex predator of the oceans, SSNs are also adept at disrupting commerce and naval shipping, a serious prospect that any potential aggressor must consider. Especially when you're looking at a force of SSNs operating from a strategic base in the southern reaches of the Indian Ocean.
Essentially submarines, particularly the advantage that come with nuclear‑powered ones, can provide credible deterrence at the scale and reach required for our immense maritime responsibility.
Why Now?
But why now? Australia's acquisition of SSNs is both timely and necessary. It's been driven by the convergence of the strategic needs and economic factors that I just discussed, as well as advancements in technology.
We are living in another maritime century. As terrestrial resource deposits have largely been discovered and exploited on land, many now look to our oceans where it's estimated there are 250 per cent more critical mineral resources to be found on the seabed than on land. Consequently, competition for maritime territory and resources is unprecedented.
Between 1950 and 2020, 157 countries have had a maritime boundary dispute at one point or another, and by 2008, over 54 per cent of them remain unsettled. It should come as no surprise then that if we look to the Indo‑Pacific, our region is now defined by increased competition at sea and increased disregard for international laws which have underpinned peaceful access to the sea.
The international laws, treaties and norms at sea and ashore are being challenged, they're not being abided by, and for an island trading nation upon whose access to the sea is an existential issue, this must be confronted.
The operating environment our people face at sea is one considerably more complex and assertive than it has been for years. The risk of miscalculation and misjudgement is almost as great as any. Respect for nations' sovereignty has been flagrantly disregarded of late across the Indo‑Pacific and in Western Europe and in the Middle East. Respect for access to the high seas and for innocent passage are also no longer universal.
Overall, broad adherence to the Rules Based Order that enabled a fair go for all nations can no longer be assumed. So I submit it must be assured through credible and lethal naval power. Our access to the sea, our maritime security and our economic wellbeing all depend on it. In the current strategic context, a strong Navy is not a desire, it is a pressing need.
What SSNs Provide
It's important to highlight why SSNs specifically should form the cornerstone of Australian deterrence. With our vast maritime responsibilities and relatively small population, nuclear‑powered submarines provide unique advantages. They offer endurance, lethality and stealth, capabilities which are essential for defending Australia's extensive maritime jurisdiction.
As many of you know, unlike conventional submarines, SSNs do not require regular recharging at periscope depth to recharge their batteries. This grants them virtually unlimited range and loiter capability, enabling prolonged operations and making them stealthy and much harder to detect.
But importantly, in an age where artificial intelligence, quantum computing and advanced algorithms are being combined with existing and advanced detection capability, the ability to disconnect from periscope depth for extended periods enhances their survivability in the Maritime Domain, at the same time as the reliance on conventional submarines on periscope depth access increases their vulnerability.
It is this reality that we have paid attention to in Australia. It is this reality that we are treating. And I look forward to the fact that future generations of Australian submariners will be operating in a more capable, much more survivable platform than what their forebears will have operated in.
SSN stealth combined with increased speed means they can evade threats swiftly. This enhances their survivability, and they can also quickly deploy to areas of interest. They are more responsive. The advanced payload capacity also further enhances their lethality, particularly as it allows for long‑range precision strike on land.
The essence of sea power though is not only strength but the secret of strength, breeding strategic uncertainty in the minds of those who would act against us. The SSNs' silent, unseen presence will project power and instil caution in the minds of potential adversaries. It will bolster our deterrence capability.
And as we protect our nation, we will also be better equipped to help shape the peace beyond it. The sea is both our shield and our frontier. A strong naval presence is the power to deter aggression, to protect our nation and to shape the peace that lies beyond our shores.
We Can Do It
Much as critics of previous Australian submarine programs have, critics of AUKUS Pillar I question our ability to achieve our goal, the introduction of nuclear‑powered submarines into our Navy.
However, a few key points are often overlooked. We already have a capable submariner workforce and supporting industry. We've built submarines before. Our submariners electing to stream in the SSN program are not being trained how to be submariners, they're being trained on the nuclear propulsion aspects of submarine training. The majority of them are already suitably qualified and experienced in the rest of the equipment and sensors on SSNs through their service in our Collins fleet.
In the areas where we must develop, namely becoming nuclear stewards and operating nuclear propulsion systems, progress is well underway. The first officer and sailor cohorts have already graduated from the UK and U.S. nuclear power schools, achieving excellent results.
As recently announced, Henderson Shipyard is getting an injection of funding to ensure we can support and sustain the Submarine Rotational Force, and our future sovereign SSNs. And although the AUKUS pact has at times been regarded as a revolutionary change to our security partnership and outlook, I submit it is actually evolution, not revolution. An evolution of our long‑standing partnership with the United Kingdom and the U.S. And remember, we're not changing the nature of our submarine operations, we're just changing the propulsion system which enables them.
It's also an evolution to long‑standing cooperation in undersea warfare between our respective navies. The collaboration is a continuation of our history in undersea warfare, exemplified during World War II when Australia did not operate a sovereign submarine capability. When Fremantle was home to the largest Allied submarine base in the southern hemisphere, launching 416 combat patrols that proved decisive in the war's outcome.
This legacy of cooperation between government, industry, academia and the Navy, as well as with our allies, will be the foundation of success for AUKUS Pillar I. Each time we have been challenged and each time Australian ingenuity and partnership has prevailed.
What's not to have confidence in? We've done difficult things before. We do complex things. We operate a high‑end, lethal war fighting Navy which has the respect of all of our partners and allies. It seems to me the deck is stacked in our favour.
Conclusion
In conclusion, our geography, population, economy and strategic realities mean we need a deterrence capability with the scale and reach of which only a nuclear‑powered submarine can provide. The essence of deterrence lies both in the credibility of our capability and the certainty of our resolve to see this through.
Yes, there are challenges, but our history proves that Australia has consistently delivered on its submarine programs despite substantial challenges and criticisms over the cost and complexity of capability, both of which have been known and understood, for over 100 years.
Moreover, Australia's submarine force has consistently achieved training outcomes to introduce and operate some of the most complex submarines and undersea systems in the world, and they have consistently delivered results that enhanced our national security and protected our national interests.
In my view, the Virginia‑class and AUKUS SSNs will be no different. They are not just the next step in this legacy; they are an appropriate, timely and achievable leap forward that will provide the capabilities essential for our national geography, our national interests and our national defence.
Australia is ready for this challenge, as we have proven to be before. With partnership across Defence, industry, government and academia, with a proud legacy of achievement behind us and a steadfast alliance beside us, we are prepared to secure our nuclear-propelled place beneath the waves to protect our nation's economic wellbeing.
Remember, sheep don't swim very far, iron ore doesn't float, and freedom of the seas isn't free. There is no economic security for an island trading nation without strong maritime security. Indeed, our economic security and our way of life depend upon it.
Thank you again for the opportunity to address this esteemed audience and good luck for the rest of the conference. After this warm up, I think I’m ready for Senate Estimates. Thank you.